March 2023 Market Update

Have we hit rock bottom?

Many buyers have been waiting for "prices to come down", and it seems like that has happened. While no one has a crystal ball to say if this is "rock bottom", experiencing the market on a daily basis leads me to believe that we are now going to be increasing the median sales price moving forward (at least for the near future). Buyer demand is low compared to peak levels yet is now increasing as the Spring market heats up. The mortgage rates continue to display volatility, impacting every corner of the real estate market.

New listings increased slightly from last month to 3,417. This is 18.3% lower than last year's new listings (but keep in mind that last February, interest rates were much lower so the market was much hotter). Historically, December 2022 marked the lowest count of new listings in many years, so increasing off of that low is going to be a major feat.

Pending sales is a count of all properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month. This includes both "Under Contract-Show" and "Under Contract-No Show" statuses. In February 2023, there were 3,851 pending sales, which was a slight increase from January 2023. Pending sales are down 8.3% from last February.

There were 2,731 closed sales in February 2023 which was a slight increase over January 2023 (Note: January marked the lowest number of closed sales in the past 2 years). Even with this stat increasing, it was still lower than last February by 27.8%. It has been several years since we've seen closed sales this low.

Days on market is tracking the days that a particular property is either "Active" or "Under Contract-Show" (essentially, it is tracking the number of "showable" days for a property). In February 2023, the average was 48 days on market, which is double what it was last February and more than 3 times our lowest recorded DOM (recorded in June-July 2021 and again in May-June 2022). It's important to note that 48 days on market is still remarkably low historically.

Average list price is showing us how the sellers are feeling about the market. Average list price increased again this month to $466,864, which is 7.1% higher than last February. Ultimately, it seems like sellers are still feeling optimistic about the real estate market.

Average sales price accounts for all closed sales in a given month (not including seller concessions). Remember that the properties that close in a given month are generally at least one month delayed from current activity (just like the "Closed Sales" stat from above). Theoretically, the homes that were listed in December and January may have been the ones that closed in February (broad generalization). The average sales price in February 2023 was $421,867, a 3.7% increase over last February and a slight increase from last month. Average sales prices have decreased $51,655 from the peak of the market in June 2022.

Median sales price is the dollar amount at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less (not including seller concessions) in a given month. In February 2023, the median sales price was $353,550, a decrease of 1.9% from last February - the first year over year decrease in several years. Again, June 2022 marked the peak of the market at $399,988, marking a decrease of $46,438 in 8 months.

The percent of original list price received is a stat that is important to both buyers and sellers. Sellers should take note because it is an indication of how aggressively they should price their property. If homes are selling below list price, sellers need to be much more realistic about pricing (aim for just below market value). If homes are selling above list price, then the market is more forgiving. Buyers should take note because it indicates at what level they can be asking for concessions. When homes are selling lower than list, buyers tend to be able to ask for closing costs, personal property, and even a home warranty. However when homes are selling over asking, they should limit their requests in order to be more competitive. In February 2023, homes were selling at 95.3% of list price, which is beginning to tick upwards.

Inventory of homes for sale is measuring the number of properties which remain in "Active" status at the end of a given month. At the end of February 2023, there were 4,717 properties remaining for sale, an increase of 70.5% from last February.

Months supply of homes for sale is determined by taking the inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month and dividing it by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months. In February 2023, there were 1.2 months supply of homes for sale, which is a 100% increase from last February. Even though we have more inventory available, 1.2 months supply still indicates a sellers' market.

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